Displaybank says PV polysilicon supply to exceed demand through 2010

January 16, 2009--According to Displaybank (San Jose, CA), a market research company focused on the display and photovoltaic (PV) industry, its new publication "Solar Cell-use Polysilicon, Ingot and Wafer Technology and Market Trend" says that the supply of solar cell-use polysilicon, which was in short supply until Q3 2008, is expected to exceed demand in 2009 through 2010, with spot prices expected to drop by a factor of four to $100/kg due to the oversupply situation.

For 2009, polysilicon supply is estimated at 7.9 GW (an estimated 62,000 tons) to exceed estimated demands of 7.8 GW. The oversupply situation in 2010 is expected to be more severe. Delayed Investments from new manufacturers and utilization cuts from major manufacturers may cause a short supply in 2011

The importance of solar cell-use polysilicon is demonstrated by the fact that the PV market is growing at a greater than 40% compound annual growth rate. Demand for solar cell-use polysilicon increased to cause a short supply situation and a spot price that reached $400/kg. Displaybank adds that in 2010, estimated 15 GW (108,000 tons) of solar cell-use polysilicon will be available for supply when demand is at 11 GW, causing the severe oversupply and price drops.

Displaybank analyst Alex Kang forecasts that "there is a high probability that the large-scale investments from newly entering companies are delayed until 1H, 2010 as global economic recession worsens. And if existing polysilicon makers cut their utilization rate, the market will undergo short supply situation after the short term (2009-2010) oversupply of solar cell-use polysilicon."

For more information, go to www.displaybank.com.

--Posted by Gail Overton, gailo@pennwell.com.