Anaheim, CA, April 9, 2003. Although the downturn in the electronics industry has delayed deployment of many technologies, there are still areas that promise potential growth. This is according to the 2002 roadmap of the National Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI).
"The big news of the past two years has been the significant impact that the economic downturn has had on deployment of technology," said Jim McElroy, executive director and CEO of NEMI. "In many areas, the technology growth envisioned by the 2000 NEMI roadmap is still on the horizon, but is delayed. Some of the most obvious of these are optoelectronics, embedded passives, enterprise supply chain IT tools and 3G cell phone infrastructure. In addition, the movement of manufacturing to China is gaining momentum and will continue to put competitive strain on North American manufacturers. Today, 7.5 percent of electronics assembly is done in the People's Republic of China. According to Prismark Partners, it will be 35 percent by 2020.
"Both of these factors have affected investment in new technologies," continued McElroy. "However, there continue to be areas of growth, although not as explosive as in the past, and now, more than ever, companies must effectively focus their resources on deployment of 'winning' technologies."
Optoelectronics was a hot topic in the 2000 roadmap. However, long-haul broadband capacity was overbuilt to meet the expected demands of Internet traffic that was doubling every 100 days. As the cyberspace boom slowed (to doubling once a year), the large investments telecommunications companies made in their infrastructures (such as installing miles of fiber) did not yield the expected returns.
Growth of optoelectronics in the telecommunications industry over the next several years is most likely to occur in the next-generation SONET equipment market, modules for the enterprise market and associated optical components. In addition, there are other applications where optoelectronics are making inroads. For example, automotive and FTTH (fiber to the home) applications show excellent potential for growth in the next 10 years and represent high volume as well.
Automation and standards continue to be the key stumbling blocks to low-cost, high-volume production. Industry must develop improved optoelectronic subcomponents and materials that reduce costs in order to expand the market. Plus, standards are needed for packaging, reliability, interoperability, testing, transport and more.
The 2002 NEMI roadmap is published on CD-ROM and is now available to non-members at a cost of $250. Companies can also license the roadmap for posting on their internal websites. Licensing fees are based on company size. To order the 2002 NEMI roadmap, email [email protected], call +1 (703) 834-0330.
Optical Manufacturing