How can I tell if this startup will make it?

May 1, 2000
A startup company made me a job offer. Being a midlevel engineering manager, how do I determine whether this company can succeed? Is it proper to ask for the company business plan?
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Q: A startup company made me a job offer. Being a midlevel engineering manager, how do I determine whether this company can succeed? Is it proper to ask for the company business plan?

A: What you want to know is not much different from what potential investors also want to know. A startup company's future success is very difficult to determine, especially if you don't have the experience or access to the resources and tools of a professional investor. Because your career is very important to you, it is appropriate—and you shouldn't hesitate—to ask the management for parts or all of the business plan. How the company handles your requests can tell you a lot about the company culture, which is also an important consideration in choosing a company.

The critical factors in a business are technology, market, and execution, so you would want the management to fill you in about those aspects. Look for self-consistency in the information you gather. Inconsistencies are usually indications of deeper problems. But you must also do your own homework and look beyond catch phrases that really don't mean that much. Here are some examples:

"The company has great technology." Objectively, though, there may be "better" technologies out there. Even intellectual property may be worthless. As we all know, technology marches on. So you have to dig a lot deeper by talking to people who know the field or the industry intimately.

"The market size is enormous." Market statistics are mostly aggregated numbers from all versions of a product. Customers are quite specific in their requirements. A product that doesn't provide a single feature that customers really need may result in few sales, independent of the market size. And enthusiastic entrepreneurs may subconsciously gloss over specifications that they can't meet.

"Management is very strong technically." The important issue is whether or not management can execute. A lot of people from research have no clue about costs or what it takes to develop or manufacture a product. A company is not in business until it ships products.

"The company is well funded." In today's financial environment, when venture capitalists are awash with money, getting funded is no indication that the business model is sound. Find out where the money came from. Smart money from experienced angels or top-tier VCs is a good indication, because in some sense these investors have done the due diligence for you. I will go so far as saying that investments made by anyone less than a second-tier VC is usually a bad sign because the quality of help is lower, raising additional funding is harder, and it is also possible that more-sophisticated investors knew better than to invest!

So what's the short answer? Ask for the business plan and meet the top management. Pay attention to how they handle those requests, and develop a level of confidence in the management. Ultimately a company is no better than the quality of its management. They can either be the cause of or the solution to a company's shortcomings. Focus on assessing the management team and their philosophy.

Q: My husband and I are both professionals with good jobs. He received a job offer from an out-of-state startup. He is likely to do well, but my career will suffer with the move. How should I look at this?

A: This decision is very personal, so I can only provide some food for thought. There is never a right decision or wrong decision because there are too many variables beyond just "to move or not to move" that will impact your future. What's more important is the process by which you two come to a decision. Talking it over calmly and making the decision objectively and rationally will help you develop a deeper understanding of each other, and that can only strengthen the relationship. There is a lot of truth in the saying you get out only what you put into a relationship. If the decision is based on selfish reasons, then it is a bad decision no matter what the future brings. If it is not truly a mutual decision, then it will be a win-lose situation, and one of you will always come up with reasons why it would have been better the other way.

If career is the only consideration, the logical conclusion is for you to make the move. Change brings uncertainty to your career, for sure, but it is not a given that you won't also find a better job in the brave new world out there. Implicit in this argument is that the two of you should look at the outcome as an aggregate rather than two separate careers. In no way should this decision be based on the silly notion that the husband's career comes first.

About the Author

Milton Chang

MILTON CHANG of Incubic Management was president of Newport and New Focus. He is currently director of mBio Diagnostics and Aurrion; a trustee of Caltech; a member of the SEC Advisory Committee on Small and Emerging Companies; and serves on advisory boards and mentors entrepreneurs. Chang is a Fellow of IEEE, OSA, and LIA. Direct your business, management, and career questions to him at [email protected], and check out his book Toward Entrepreneurship at www.miltonchang.com.

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