Happy end of 2020—a year few could have imagined when it began. Now, we all want to know how long the pandemic will continue and when we can regain some sense of social and economic normalcy. I remember attending a magazine staff meeting in early January in which a senior manager, hoping to inspire us for the coming year, reviewed business conditions and said, “It looks like a great year—does anyone see a problem with our forecasts?” And I said something to the effect that there were reports of a new virus in China, and if not contained it could impact one of the biggest global suppliers and customers for lasers and photonics products. No one in the meeting wanted to hear that and I didn’t begin to fathom what a naïve understatement it was.
Eleven months later, I think we have experienced enough to know that life during a pandemic is not a simple matter of survival until a clear end, but rather a process filled with uncertainties and risk, and also with adjustments, losses and gains, new opportunities—a continuation. History is a good teacher of many things, even if the lessons are not always a direct parallel. The far more lethal Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 lasted over two years and killed 50–100 million people, and was followed by the prosperity and social changes of the “Roaring Twenties”.
For some perspective on the history and future of this pandemic, I think that Yale professor Nicholas Christakis provides a realistic assessment in his new book, Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live. His observations include noting that lies and denial are an intrinsic part of every epidemic, and that the timeline to “normal” is longer than everyone would hope. Even in the case of a vaccine, the challenges of manufacture, distribution, and persuading the public to accept it can take a year.
As Christakis said in a video interview, the first period will last until sometime in 2022, during which we’re confronting the biological and epidemiological impact of the virus, and living in a changed world, wearing masks, physical distancing, and closing schools. In the second period, we’ll be recovering from the psychological, social, and economic shock of the virus. He thinks that sometime in 2024, life will slowly begin to return to normal, with some persistent changes. His view corresponds to forecasts for many of the world’s economies from the International Monetary Fund, which sees a long and uneven recovery.
His perspective is depressing at first, but helpful and realistic because it’s based on the study of centuries of epidemics. Such an overall social/historical perspective is useful for businesses when thinking strategically.
Fortunately, the reality for photonics businesses so far has been better than that of many other sectors. As our laser market analyst, Allen Nogee, reported in his October laser market update, laser revenues for communications have stabilized and are projected to rise in 2021, with the pandemic a boon as millions of workers begin to work remotely. The market for lasers for materials processing has also stabilized and overall revenues are better than first feared.
And as industry investor John Dexheimer of LightWave Advisors writes in his column on our photonics stock market indices, substantial capital investment in photonics-based firms, including lidar and quantum technology companies, bodes well for increasing capital flows into photonics-related industries.
Both Allen and John will be presenting much more information and insights on these topics at the 33rd Annual Lasers & Photonics Marketplace Seminar, which will be held in cooperation with SPIE Photonics West. More information will be available soon, as will a full list of speakers, including Bo Gu of Bos Photonics speaking about the laser markets and policies of China, and Bruce Carlson of Strategic Directions International speaking about the biophotonics instrumentation market and the impact of COVID-19.
One “normal” that has not changed is that photonics businesses must continue adapting and moving ahead with business and technical innovations into the New Year.
