High-tech workers—already in short supply—may become increasingly scarce over the next several decades, the federal government concluded in a report issued in April.* That labor shortage threatens to slow the pace of growth in high-tech industries, unless the federal government and high-tech companies take dramatic steps to attract new demographic groups, such as women and minorities, to the field, according to the report.
"If current trends persist, our nation may not have all of the talent it will need to enable the innovation process that has given America a strong economy and high quality of life," warns the report, Ensuring a Strong US Scientific, Technical, and Engineering Workforce in the 21st Century, produced by the National Science and Technology Council, which consists of the President, Vice President, and heads of federal agencies that are heavily involved with science and technology. "America is indeed fortunate that talented men and women from all over the world have chosen to study and work in the United States. Our leadership in science and technology is largely due to this situation. But we cannot expect it to continue. We will have to do a much better job of growing our own talent," Neal Lane, President Clinton's science adviser, said when the report was released.
"If we want a strong high-tech work force, members of all groups, including non-Hispanic white males, must participate at increasing rates. High-tech careers will have to become more attractive to everyone in our society—women and men from all backgrounds and all parts of the country," Lane said.
Demographics play a role
The essence of the problem, the report says, is in America's demographics: most high-tech workers today are non-Hispanic white males, but that group is expected to shrink from 37% of the work force in 1995 to 26% by 2050. To meet industry's needs for high-tech workers, a considerably higher proportion of white men would have to decide to pursue those careers.
Meanwhile, other demographic groups are projected to become better represented in the work force, rising to nearly half by 2050 compared to about a fourth now. Specifically, African Americans are projected to comprise 14% of the work force by 2050, compared to 12% in 1995; Hispanics are expected to represent 24%, compared to 10% in 1995; and Asians are expected to increase from 4% to 9%.
But people in those demographic groups don't pursue technical careers as commonly as do non-Hispanic white males. Based on the frequency with which members of minority groups earn college degrees in science or technology, the report calculates that the number of graduating college students with science degrees could decline by 9% by 2050.
If that happened, the United States would have to allow more technical workers to immigrate or send some jobs to other nations, the report warns.
"Since it takes many years to train a scientist or engineer, we must invest now to guarantee the availability of a skilled and competent work force for the 21st century," the report says. "We must not only educate future . . . workers but also provide continuing education and retraining opportunities, because many individuals in today's [technical] work force will probably change the type of work they do several times over the course of their careers."
The report calls on federal agencies to expand their efforts to entice women and minorities to consider careers in science and technology. In particular, federal agencies should take steps to help minorities and women advance from one educational stage to the next—such as transitions from high school to two-year colleges and from two-year colleges to four-year colleges. Much of the attention should be focused on the college level, the report says. "The nation has taken many steps toward the goal of giving all Americans appropriate backgrounds in science and mathematics by the time they have completed their elementary and secondary schooling—key to enhancing the work force," the report says. The federal government also should find ways to help minorities and women bear the expense of college training in science and technology, such as through additional scholarships, fellowships, traineeships, research assistantships and internships, the report concludes.
The government report suggests that the federal government encourage minorities and women to take technical jobs in the federal government. It also recommends that government "vigorously pursue professional development opportunities for those already in the federal work force."
Corporate participation
Lane called on companies to commit to individually spend $1 million annually, over the next decade, on measures to increase the diversity of the high-tech work force, such as scholarships and job training. On April 6, executives from 25 major companies gathered at the White House to make just such a pledge. They included Adobe Systems, America Online, AT&T, BellSouth, Boeing Corporation, DuPont, Eastman Kodak, Ford Motor Company, General Electric, GTE, IBM, Intel, Lucent Technologies, MCI Worldcom, Siemens Corporation, Sun Microsystems, TRW, and Xerox.
Lane called on other companies to follow suit. He said, "Long-term commitments by the corporate community will not only promote diversity in the work force but will also help address America's need for additional skilled scientists, engineers, and technical workers."
*In "Lack of educational programs limits optoelectronics industry growth," Laser Focus World, May 2000, p. 127, C. Breck Hitz, executive director of LEOMA, expressed his concern over the shortage of graduates in high-technology fields and the impact on the optoelectronics industry. This month's Washington Report takes a look at how the federal government is addressing this issue.